Feeling Betrayed

I am not a smoker, but I can imagine…

I grew up in a time when almost 1/3 of the people smoked. Teachers, store owners and even parents (not mine).

At one time, the common experience most everyone shared, was their first cigarette. For some, the unsavory nature of their first cigarette made it their last. The savvy hero puffed a cigarette. The suave female heroine delicately held a cigarette between her fingers (old movies restricted the number of times showing women actually smoking). Smoking by women was often merely implied. The cigarette industry gave cigarettes to soldiers to encourage a habit of smoking. Smoking was considered the manly thing to do as an adult. Most all your peers likely partook. A pack of cigarettes was relatively cheap and ubiquitous.

Things changed. Not all at once, but in fits and stages. The background echo of the health hazards of cigarettes became louder. The experts paraded to dispel the mention of ill health affects were finding it harder to dispute apparent cause and effect. The strategy that worked so well for so long was showing cracks, that there was no conclusive evidence [sounds like today’s climate change denial]. 

Warnings were put on cigarette packs. Yul Brynner, the actor, was dieing of cancer and performed a series of public service commercials blaming cigarettes. That got a lot of young people’s attention. Asking if you are a smoker became a routine health insurance question that affected rates. Employers started to band smoking on their premises. Second hand smoking became an issue during pregnancy. The product stopped being a cheap commodity and became a premium expense. The industry blames taxes. Smoking has taken on the mantle of a drug addiction.

If you are an older smoker it would all seem like a bewildering betrayal. You were encouraged to smoke, practically everyone did. Now you are forced to smoke out doors at work and at commercial establishments. Some people will not allow you to smoke in their homes. Passengers will complain about your smoking in your own car. A really bold person might wiggle their nose and comment your car and clothes smell like smoke. 

The average retail price of pack of cigarettes is $3.80 dollars. The financial drag can be great if you smoke heavily. It is unimaginable that things would have changed this way in regards to smoking. Today you are inconvenienced in order to smoke, pay an escalating price for the product, and ostracized.

Al Capone on the Horizon

Prohibition, the outlawing of liquor in America, was a failure. It was eventually repealed. It is an American cultural belief that outlawing something in demand will stop the demand or curtail undesired behavior. It has not been very effective with drugs.

There was an economic pronouncement in the newspaper today. The average American income has dropped to that of 2000 and the prognosis is there will not be a redress until 2021. Economics is a driver of behavior.

The movie and record industries have woven a web of restrictions on their offering. They are effectively pricing themselves out of the marginal utility value of growing numbers of people. People that would not have thought about circumventing this restrictive web are being seduced. Especially, if they believe they are bypassing draconian schemes that violate their fundamental rights.

Sooner or later the penalties and restrictions on bypass are going to grow great enough to capture the attention of mainstream organized crime. Just like Alcohol did during prohibition. The financial return on illegal offerings will rise significantly. The Russian or Israeli mafia like organizations, or even the Yakuza, might jump in with both feet. I guess mention of an Israeli mafia is a surprise. Its existence is kept carefully out of the American media. But the most notorious crime organizations come from the most staid, monitored and repressed societies.

I can envision things degenerating to raiding homes and random searches. I can also believe contraband will become pervasive in direct proportion to enforcement and economic conditions. It will grow to become a violent and risky enterprise consuming more and more resources.

Eventually, just like the repeal of Prohibition, The Digital Millennium Copyright Act will fall.