Superpower Rise

I will give you my alternative history.  Super powers of any time never move aside gracefully as a replacement rises. It is always a bloody confrontation.

Before World War II Britain was the super power. It had been so for over a century. A rival emerged for the top spot. The rival was Germany. First Germany tried to ascend in World War I and again in World War II.

The belligerence between Britain and Germany caused their marginalization. A dark horse took the number one spot. Had Britain and Germany’s rivalry remained a simmer, American history would have been very different.  America would have had to fight its way to the top spot.

To move up America would have to challenge entrenched French and Germany interests before taking on Britain. Instead America would have opted for Pacific expansion. But America would have run head on into a focused Japan in the area, instead of one spread thin with its war expansionism. The Japanese would have caused an abrupt American halt, just like they did Russia earlier. In fact had there not been World War II, the superpower today could very well be Japan and not America. America's success is less of a manifest destiny and more of "the luck of the draw". World War II also caused America to receive great riches as the banker of a devastated West.

World War II resulted in a change in the number one superpower without America having to directly and alone challenge the incumbent powers. Today we focus on China becoming the rival for the throne. In reality there are numerous pretenders that might ascend under the right circumstances. The list might surprise you because it includes many of our “allies”. The list includes China, India, Canada, Australia, Israel, Brazil, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, South Korea, Japan and even South Africa. Your first response is likely that they lack the global foot print or military power. True power is a combination of the right mix of factors at the proper time.

What would cause America to vacate the number one spot overnight? It is its Achilles Heel, electricity or its corollary heel of fresh water. America is heavily dependent on abundant fresh water for heavy industry and agriculture. Fracking might contaminate America's great aquifers or a deadly water pathogen develop.
  
Electricity can catastrophically fail due to a solar fare that takes the electric grid down for years or a low orbit nuclear explosion over the nation resulting in an EMF surge. 

Finally there is miss management and miss calculation. American cannot afford its trillion dollar a year investment in spying and the military industrial complex (hidden from public view). There is also the specter of a miscalculation in a confrontation that drwafs Afghanistan.