Al Capone on the Horizon

Prohibition, the outlawing of liquor in America, was a failure. It was eventually repealed. It is an American cultural belief that outlawing something in demand will stop the demand or curtail undesired behavior. It has not been very effective with drugs.

There was an economic pronouncement in the newspaper today. The average American income has dropped to that of 2000 and the prognosis is there will not be a redress until 2021. Economics is a driver of behavior.

The movie and record industries have woven a web of restrictions on their offering. They are effectively pricing themselves out of the marginal utility value of growing numbers of people. People that would not have thought about circumventing this restrictive web are being seduced. Especially, if they believe they are bypassing draconian schemes that violate their fundamental rights.

Sooner or later the penalties and restrictions on bypass are going to grow great enough to capture the attention of mainstream organized crime. Just like Alcohol did during prohibition. The financial return on illegal offerings will rise significantly. The Russian or Israeli mafia like organizations, or even the Yakuza, might jump in with both feet. I guess mention of an Israeli mafia is a surprise. Its existence is kept carefully out of the American media. But the most notorious crime organizations come from the most staid, monitored and repressed societies.

I can envision things degenerating to raiding homes and random searches. I can also believe contraband will become pervasive in direct proportion to enforcement and economic conditions. It will grow to become a violent and risky enterprise consuming more and more resources.

Eventually, just like the repeal of Prohibition, The Digital Millennium Copyright Act will fall.