I just don't get it!
Sometimes you have that nagging feeling, “…I just don’t get it”. This is the way I have felt since the financial crisis and trying to understand why everything seems to hinge on banking. It is even more of a mystery with the European crisis. Then out of the blue comes an epiphany.
How is banking supposed to operate? It is suppose to be funded by deposits. It leverages those deposits to increase revenue through loans and other investments. Confidence is critical. No bank has enough money on hand to cover deposits if people demanded their money back. This is referred to as “a run on the bank”.
Think of banking under the best of circumstances like “musical chairs”. The music is controlled and slow. The music has played pretty much continually since the 1930s. It is because of confidence. The depositors believe that if the music stops, it will start again immediately. To be left standing is a momentary situation and your money is safe in the banks hands.
Banking has gravitated increasingly to higher yield and greater risk ventures. This means even less money on hand to meet obligation calls. Banks have forgone the “mutual” model in favor of the “investor” model. The latter means profits leave the bank to pockets of large investors, instead of being recycled in the system. The investors have an immediate return view of things, hence the drive to quick profits and accompanying high risk.
It appears that the worst case banking scenario is the “rule rather than the exception”. Banking today is a “ponzi scheme” and has no way to meet obligations with a significant margin call. When this happens you have two choices, new influxes of cash to keep the game going or allow the system of things to crash. That is why there is constant bank bail outs. It is an effort to keep the system going. The big problem in Europe is that contagion from one nation’s banks failing will drag other nations with it due to financial interdependence.
The call for banks to hold greater reserve funds for margin calls is very unpleasant to the banks and the big investors. Withholding funds in a liquidable posture means low yields and less profits.
What about America? America is the grandmaster of the banking ponzi scheme. It has the wherewithal to keep its game intact due to an abundance of faith. Everyone believes they are smart enough not to be the odd man out if things crash (Lehman’s is forgotten).
Labels: I just don’t get it